The European Union is aiming to ban all Russian energy imports by the end of 2027, which was already talked about a lot before but no concrete measures were taken as Russia remained the EU’s second biggest gas supplier, and now a non-member state could frustrate EU efforts to disengage from Russian energy supplies.

The European Commission announced plans this week to completely stop all Russian natural gas imports, by banning member countries from signing new supply contracts with Gazprom and exiting current contracts without paying fines. 

The first problem is that not all EU members support such a step, with countries such Slovakia and Hungary vehemently opposing due to concerns that such a step would weaken the competitiveness of European companies due to higher costs. 

However, Turkey has gradually become a major gas center that contains a lot of Russian gas, with both Hungary and Slovakia getting their Russian gas supplies through a Turkey-Black Sea pipeline. 

Such a pipeline would likely prolong EU dependence on Russian gas, with Russian gas imports already increasing from 30% in 2021 to over 50% in 2024. 

Turkey imports a lot of Russian gas, with some used locally, and the rest is exported to south eastern Europe, with Turkey aiming at becoming a major regional center for natural gas through local production and conduit services between Russia and the EU.

Turkey already announced direct plans to replace Ukraine as the conduit territory for Russian gas exports to the EU, with Hungary alone expected to import 8 billion cubic meters this year, up from 6 billion in 2023, while Slovakia similarly planning to increase imports through revisions to its long-term contracts with Gazprom.

The Turkish pipeline and its role as an intermediary will likely frustrate EU plans to completely disengage from Russian energy imports, with Turkey representing a loophole that some eastern European countries will rely on to bypass laws aimed at restraining Russia. 

Oil prices rose on Friday and headed for weekly gains as the US-China trade tensions calmed down, while Britain announced a “historic” trade deal with Washington.

Brent crude rose 53 cents, or 0.84% to $63.37 a barrel, while US West Texas rose 51 cents, or 0.85% to $60.42 a barrel, with both up over 3% so far this week.

PVM analysts said the hopes for a US-China resolution for the trade war helped Brent prices surge over 3% on Thursday.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet senior Chinese officials on May 10 in Switzerland to discuss a potential end to the trade war, which would boost fuel demand. 

Recent Chinese customs data showed exports rose more than expected in April, while imports fell slower than expected, giving Beijing some support before the tariff negotiations.

China’s crude oil imports in April fell compared to March but were up 7.5% on a yearly basis, as government refineries stocked up during maintenance.

Separately, US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain has agreed to cut tariffs on US imports in exchange for similar cuts in US tariffs on UK goods.

Otherwise, OPEC+ is planning to increase production again in June, heaping pressure on prices, while a Reuters survey showed OPEC production dipped in April as a drop in Libyan, Venezuelan, and Iraqi production outweighed planned production hikes.

Conversely, severe US sanctions on Iran could hurt supplies and boost prices once more, with the US imposing sanctions on a small Chinese refinery this week for buying Iranian oil.

US stock indices rose at the open on Friday as trade tensions calmed down following statements by President Donald Trump.

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that imposing 80% tariffs on Chinese goods looks like the right step, but the decision will be left in Scott Bessent’s hands before trade talks with China in Switzerland on Saturday.

Trump asserted that more trade deals with other countries will be reached soon without laying into details.

On trading, Dow Jones rose 0.2%, or 92 points to 41,460 points as of 15:01 GMT, while S&P 500 rose 0.4%, or 22 points to 5686 points, as NASDAQ added 0.6%, or 115 points to 18,043 points.

Copper prices edged higher in London on Friday as the dollar weakened and supplies shrank in nearby markets, raising prices of newer copper futures compared to older ones.

Copper three-month futures at the London Metals Exchange rose 0.1% to $9443 a tone by 09:55 GMT.

US President Donald Trump said crucial trade negotiations with China will be conducted this weekend, and he expects the punitive 145% tariffs on Chinese goods to fall.

A softening of the trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world would likely boost growth, market sentiment, and copper demand, in turn underpinning prices.

Otherwise, copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 9.6% this week, and are down 70% since late February.

At the London Metals Exchange, the gap between the Shanghai Exchange price and three-month contract price in London closed at a $46 a ton surplus, the highest since November 2022, and compared to a deficit of $64 a ton in early April, as London inventories continue to attract inflows from abroad. 

China’s copper imports hit a record high in April as industrial production picks up pace. 

As for other metals, aluminum price rose 0.6% at the London Exchange to $2428 a ton, while zinc rose 1.1% to $2647.5, as lead rose 1.6%, while nickel rose 1.1% to $15,705. Tin rose 0.1% to $31,760.

Otherwise, the dollar index fell 0.4% as of 14:46 GMT to 100.2, with a session-high at 100.8, and a low at 100.2.

Copper July futures rose 1.3% as of 14:40 GMT in American trade to $4.66 a pound.